What are the chances of winning your claim?

Around a third of contested claims succeed at hearing, but most cases settle before that point (MOJ Tribunal Statistics, 2024). Here’s what affects your odds.

What percentage of employment tribunal claims succeed?

Around a third of contested claims (where both parties dispute the facts) are won by claimants (MOJ Tribunal Statistics, 2024). However, this statistic is misleading: most claims settle before trial (via ACAS or negotiation), so the true success rate (including settlements) is much higher. Most claims that reach full hearing are disputed cases with genuine uncertainty about the outcome.

Why do so many cases settle?

Settlement is often in both parties' best interests. A settlement gives certainty and avoids the cost and risk of tribunal. ACAS facilitates settlements — many claims settle through ACAS conciliation before reaching a full tribunal hearing (MOJ Tribunal Statistics, 2024). Both sides may prefer a compromise (e.g., £8,000 instead of claiming £15,000 or defending £0) to the risk of losing everything.

Does claim type affect the chances of winning?

Yes, significantly. Unfair dismissal claims based on procedural unfairness tend to have higher success rates than discrimination claims, because procedural breaches are more objective and easier to evidence (MOJ Tribunal Statistics, 2024). Redundancy claims where selection was unfair have high success rates. Discrimination requires proving intent or disparate treatment, which is harder. Harassment and constructive dismissal claims vary based on evidence.

What makes a claim likely to succeed?

Strong documentary evidence (emails, policies, witness statements), clear procedural breaches (dismissal without investigation, no appeal), credible witness evidence, consistency between your account and documents, and a straightforward legal test (e.g., dismissal without following ACAS Code). Cases with clear-cut facts and a strong procedural issue are more likely to succeed.

What weakens a claim?

Poor documentation (relying on memory), contradictions in your account, conduct that could justify dismissal (misconduct you cannot explain), weak witness support (no one to corroborate your version), taking a long time to complain (if you accepted the situation, tribunal may infer you did not think it was wrongful), and a weak legal argument (claiming you should not have been dismissed for genuine reasons).

Should I expect to win if the employer breaks the rules?

Not automatically. Breaking ACAS Code procedures increases your chances and can trigger compensation uplift, but does not guarantee a win. If the employer can show the outcome would have been the same anyway (Polkey), or that the dismissal was for a fair reason despite the procedure breach, you may lose. Even unfair procedure requires showing the dismissal itself was substantively unfair.

What are realistic expectations?

A strong case (clear procedure breach, credible evidence, supportive witnesses) gives you the best prospects of success or a reasonable settlement. A moderate case (some evidence but disputed facts) is harder to call. A weak case (limited evidence, your word against theirs) is unlikely to succeed without further evidence. Each case is fact-specific and outcomes cannot be predicted with certainty. Most claimants overestimate their chances; tribunals are neutral and do not presume employers are wrong.

Is going to tribunal always worth it?

Not always. Factor in: cost of solicitor (if used), time (weeks to months), stress, and realistic compensation. If you are claiming £5,000 but a win only gets you £8,000 (and costs £4,000 in solicitor fees), net gain is small. A settled claim at £6,000 may be better value. If the claim is substantial (£15,000+) or a matter of principle (discrimination), tribunal may be worthwhile despite the risk.

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MOJ Employment Tribunal Statistics

Employment Rights Act 1996